IAEA Raises Long-Term Nuclear Outlook, Seeing Global Capacity Tripling by 2060
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again lifted its long-term projection for global nuclear power, forecasting in a new report that worldwide nuclear generating capacity could triple by 2060. The revised outlook marks a notable shift for an industry that has spent much of the past two decades contending with stalled project timelines and slow capacity growth.
A significant share of the projected expansion is expected to come from small modular reactors (SMRs) — compact nuclear units that are typically built in factories and shipped to site, rather than constructed on location at the scale of traditional gigawatt-class plants. SMRs have been in development for years, but the IAEA’s latest forecast suggests the agency now anticipates a broader wave of these units connecting to power grids internationally.
Nuclear power’s role in the global energy mix has drawn renewed attention as governments weigh energy security, grid reliability, and emissions goals. Large-scale reactor projects, however, have historically faced cost overruns and multi-year delays, which has fueled interest in smaller designs that proponents argue can be deployed with lower upfront capital requirements and more predictable construction schedules. First-of-a-kind SMR projects still need to demonstrate those economics in practice, and licensing pathways vary by jurisdiction.
The IAEA’s updated projection arrives amid growing activity across the nuclear supply chain, from uranium producers and fuel-cycle companies to engineering firms and utilities evaluating SMR deployments. For diversified energy shippers, nuclear fuel logistics represent one of several demand drivers; International Seaways, Inc. (INSW), a tanker operator with a market capitalization of roughly $5.19 billion, saw shares trade at $104.85, up 0.51% from the prior close of $104.31 — a reminder that nuclear developments sit within a broader energy market where capital continues to flow across both traditional and emerging segments.
Whether the tripling scenario materializes will depend on factors the IAEA itself cannot control: financing costs, regulatory approvals, supply-chain readiness for reactor components, and the pace at which utility buyers commit to early SMR orders. The agency’s forecast serves as a high-level scenario rather than a guarantee, and historical nuclear build-out projections have frequently been revised.
What to watch
- Upcoming quarterly earnings from companies across the nuclear supply chain for commentary on SMR order pipelines and uranium demand.
- Regulatory milestones, including licensing decisions for first-of-a-kind small modular reactor designs in key markets.
- Final investment decisions on early SMR projects, which would signal whether contracted capacity moves toward construction.
- Updates to the IAEA’s capacity projections in future reporting cycles, which will indicate whether the tripling outlook holds or is revised.
Source: original release
