PARIS, October 15, 2026–(BUSINESS WIRE)–The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) third quarter 2026 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators
3Q26
2Q26
1Q26
4Q25
3Q25
€/$
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.16
1.17
Brent
($/b)
97.0
103.8
81.1
63.7
69.1
TTF
($/Mbtu)
21.5
15.6
13.7
10.3
11.3
Average liquids price * (1)
($/b)
87.1
91.6
73.7
61.4
66.5
Average gas price * (1)
($/Mbtu)
7.00
5.55
5.59
5.11
5.50
Average LNG price ** (1)
($/Mbtu)
12.28
10.20
8.48
8.48
8.91
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) ***
($/b)
33.2
13.5
11.4
11.4
8.4
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/b), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of TotalEnergies.
(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the 3rd quarter 2026 aggregates
-
Hydrocarbon production is expected to increase, reaching 2.45-2.50 Mboe/d, benefiting from a reduced impact of the Middle East conflict, which is estimated to be only around 5% of the Company’s overall production. Excluding Middle East impact, the production is expected to grow more than 4% compared to the third quarter of 2025, above the annual guidance of 3%.
-
Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect production growth and the sensitivity to lower oil prices and higher gas prices compared to the previous quarter.
-
Integrated LNG results are expected to rise sharply, driven by the 20% increase of average LNG price since last quarter and by the outperformance of LNG and gas trading activities in a bull market, driven by the prolonged conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and expectation for strong winter demand.
-
Downstream results and cash flow are expected to reach exceptional levels, with a very sharp increase of $2 billion for Refining & Chemicals cash flow compared to the second quarter. The 10% refining throughput increase enabled the Company to fully capture historically high refining margins in Europe and worldwide. Oil trading activities continue to outperform on a level consistent with the previous two quarters. Marketing & Services is expected to also maintain its strong performance.
-
Integrated Power results and cash flow are expected to benefit from the expected contribution from TTEP (JV between EPH and TotalEnergies) over a full quarter, with a cash flow anticipated between $750 and $800 million.
-
A positive working capital contribution of around $3 billion is anticipated over the quarter.
2026 Sensitivities*
Change
Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income
Estimated impact on cash flow from operations
Dollar
+/- 0.1 $ per €
-/+ 0.1 B$
~0 B$
Average liquids price **
+/- 10 $/b
+/- 2.3 B$
+/- 2.8 B$
European gas price – TTF
+/- 2 $/Mbtu
+/- 0.4 B$
+/- 0.4 B$
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM)
+/- 1 $/b
+/- 0.3 B$
+/- 0.4 B$
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2026. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 60-70 $/b Brent environment.
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities. The term “Corporation” as used in this document exclusively refers to TotalEnergies SE, which is the parent company of the Company.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of 2026 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of TotalEnergies and expectations regarding returns to stockholders, including with respect to future dividends and share buybacks. This document may also contain statements regarding the outlook, objectives, areas of improvement, goals and ambitions of TotalEnergies SE, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality. An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies.
These forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “will”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “may”, “likely”, “might”, “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “has an ambition to”, “commits”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of publication of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the outlook, objectives, goals or ambitions announced will be achieved. They are uncertain and may change or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, fluctuations in the price of crude oil and natural gas, changes in demand and prices of petroleum products, changes in production levels and estimates of reserves, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related
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