US and China Battle for Influence in Central Asia as Rubio Seals $12 Billion in Deals | OilPrice.com
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By Eurasianet – Oct 20, 2026, 11:00 AM CDT
- Uzbekistan announced 54 agreements worth $12 billion with American partners during Marco Rubio’s visit to Samarkand.
- China maintains a significant economic advantage in Uzbekistan, with nearly $60 billion in agreed projects and far greater bilateral trade.
- Rubio emphasized economic competition rather than forcing Central Asian governments to choose between Washington and Beijing.
Uzbekistan in recent days has served as an octagon of competition between the United States and China over economic influence in Central Asia.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio led an almost 300-strong American business delegation to the Uzbek city of Samarkand for a business forum, where on October 19, he held talks with the foreign ministers from all five Central Asian states.
Uzbek media, citing the Uzbek Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, reported that the trip yielded at least 54 business deals worth $12 billion, covering such areas as industry, transport and energy infrastructure, critical minerals, the financial sector, digital technologies, agriculture, healthcare, and education.
A joint statement by the participating foreign ministers outlined intentions to strengthen US-Central Asian ties in a variety of areas. Curiously, the document did not specifically reference artificial intelligence or critical minerals, two priority areas for the Trump administration. It did, however, “envision expanded opportunities for mineral extraction.”
The United States pledged to help Central Asia fulfill “its export potential by developing innovative ways to increase value-added products within the region and [create] pathways to introduce these products to the international market,” the statement noted. “By leveraging secure and trusted technology, American technological excellence, and the growing technology sectors of Central Asia, we seek to foster a region where e-commerce flourishes, innovative solutions abound, and talented entrepreneurs thrive.”
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on October 19 held meet-and-greets with several US executives, including Rafael Santana, the CEO of locomotive-maker Wabtec, and Jenny Johnson, CEO of the asset management firm Franklin Templeton.
One of the agreements announced in Samarkand involves a Wabtec initiative to localize production of railway equipment. Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton, along with other finance firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Citigroup and BlackRock, will help Uzbek companies widen access to global capital markets.
The deals mark a significant step forward for US-Central Asian trade relations. Prior to the Samarkand meetings, there had been lots of hopeful talk about improving trade ties since President Trump’s return to office in January 2025. But the talk seemed to be out-pacing actual US dealmaking – at least until now.
Just a day before Rubio’s arrival in Uzbekistan, Mirziyoyev met in Tashkent with Li Qiang, China’s prime minister. Mirziyoyev’s statement touted Tashkent’s close relationship with Beijing.
“Both sides welcomed the active dialogue and cooperation at the parliamentary, governmental, ministerial, regional and business levels,” Mirziyoyev stated. He went on to emphasize the steady growth of bilateral trade. “The portfolio of projects backed by firm agreements has reached nearly $60 billion, and more than 6,000 joint ventures have been established so far,” he added.
China’s volume of trade with Central Asian states, given the advantage of geographic proximity, dwarfs that of the United States. The US and Uzbekistan exchanged an estimated $1.7 billion in goods and services in 2025. Uzbek-Chinese trade turnover reached almost $18 billion the same year, according to Uzbek government data.
The timing of Li’s visit could be seen as an attempt to upstage Rubio’s arrival, geopolitical gamesmanship akin to a surprise US diplomatic visit to Bishkek by Sergio Gor, Trump’s Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, and retiring Montana Sen. Steve Daines in early September that disrupted a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. The headline of a South China Morning Post account of Li’s trip read: “China moves to cement ties with Uzbekistan amid tussle with US for Central Asian influence.”
In Samarkand, Rubio indicated that the United States is playing catch-up to China. “We have products, we have companies. … And we just want fair competition and an opportunity,” he said during his press briefing. “There’s no part of the world in which we feel like America and American business should not be – have a fair shot to compete, and that’s what we seek to do.”
Over the summer, the State Department floated a trial balloon that, in effect, sought to force Central Asian states to make a clear choice between cooperating with the United States or China on AI development. Central Asian leaders flatly rejected the idea.
Rubio in Samarkand stressed that the United States was not striving to force Central Asian states to choose between Washington and Beijing. He maintained his visit was “not about coming here to say stop talking to somebody else or stop working with some other country.”
By Eurasianet
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