China Secures Massive Discount on Russian Gas as Moscow’s Leverage Weakens | OilPrice.com
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By Eurasianet – Oct 28, 2026, 1:00 PM CDT
- Russian government projections show China paying approximately 56% less for Russian natural gas than other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union in 2026.
- Chinese companies are advancing major copper, port infrastructure, energy, and technology initiatives across Central Asia.
- Beijing is strengthening its regional influence through investments, digital connectivity, and partnerships with Central Asian governments.
Russia is giving China a huge discount on natural gas purchases, underscoring the Kremlin’s fiscal dependency on Beijing. The Moscow Times (MT), citing Russian Duma documentation, shows that China will pay an average of approximately $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026, compared with $562 for Gazprom’s other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union. That means Beijing is receiving as much as a 56 percent discount on its purchase price. The steep discount appears to be the cost of Beijing’s ongoing political support for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine. Given the Western sanctions regime and the European Union’s efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, China’s purchases are a crucial source of funds needed to keep Russia’s war machine going. Russia hopes to reduce the discounts in the coming years, according to the MT report. To put Russia’s weak negotiating position into context, an estimate published by Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center showed China is paying up to $60 per tcm more to Turkmenistan than the Russian purchase price. Meanwhile, talks of creating a “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline have stalled over a pricing dispute, according to Beijing-connected media reports. “It’s much harder for Russian negotiators today,” Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie, wrote in the estimate. “On the one hand, the growing confrontation between the United States and China, and the instability in the Middle East, should push China into reducing LNG imports in favor of pipeline gas, which would likely be to Moscow’s advantage,” Vakulenko stated. “On the other hand, the break with Europe has left Gazprom with huge gas reserves in Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula that are ready to be exploited but have no customers, significantly strengthening China’s position.”
Central Asia
Chinese Premier Li Qiang traveled to Central Asia on October 17-19, visiting Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The tour produced deals with both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, including for a non-ferrous metallurgy industrial cluster in the Sughd region. For more about Li’s visit, see this Eurasianet report.
China’s Institute of East European, Russian, and Central Asian Studies (IREECAS), a major government think tank that informs Beijing’s regional policymaking, co-organized a China-Central Asia forum in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek for regional scholars and experts. The meeting focused on the “preparation of practical recommendations” for regional governments on a wide range of domestic and international policies. IREECAS also held a joint event with Uzbekistan’s presidential think tank, ISRS, in Tashkent, focusing on government efforts to promote artificial intelligence and digital transformation. At the conclusion of the gathering, IREECAS and ISRS announced the signing of a program of joint events and initiatives for 2027. IREECAS’s activities fit into China’s growing push to exert influence on the direction of Central Asian states’ domestic and international policymaking.
Kazakhstan
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev launched construction of a $1.8 billion copper smelter at the Aktogay deposit in Kazakhstan’s Abai region. The project, developed by Kazakh mining company KAZ Minerals, with NFC, a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group (CNMC), is designed to produce 300,000 tons of copper cathodes annually, alongside gold and sulfuric acid, and is expected to create more than 1,000 jobs. First production is scheduled for 2030. Tokayev separately met with CNMC Chairman Wen Gang, who pledged to complete construction on schedule and expand cooperation in workforce training. However, a Chinese corporate disclosure dated October 21 indicates that NFC’s Kazakh entity has signed only a preparatory-work agreement, capped at 4.52 billion tenge (about $10 million), and that the full construction contract remains unsigned. KAZ Minerals and NFC also signed a memorandum of understanding on geological exploration and mineral-resource assessment in Kazakhstan, according to the official state news agency Kazinform. The companies plan to explore the use of remote sensing, geophysical and geochemical surveys, artificial intelligence, and three-dimensional geological modeling to reassess historical geological data and identify potential drilling sites. The memorandum also provides for possible specialist training, joint research, and educational programs, with a cooperation roadmap to be developed. No financial commitments, specific exploration sites, or implementation deadlines were disclosed.
Kazakhstan’s national investment holding Baiterek JSC announced the signing of an MoU with the Chinese firm Guoyou Materials Group covering a <a href="https://baiterek.gov.kz/ru/pr/news/kh
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