Key Stats for ExxonMobil Stock
- Current Price: $187.25
- Street Target: ~$179
- NTM Dividend Yield: ~2.3%
What Happened?
ExxonMobil (XOM) rose 2.16% to $187.25 on October 30 after third-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.23 beat estimates, while the S&P 500 fell 1.82%. Brent crude also rose that day, and Chevron climbed after its own beat. With its third-quarter results, Exxon raised its quarterly dividend to $1.07, its 44th straight year of increases. It also said it plans $20 billion of buybacks in 2027, assuming reasonable market conditions. On the call, Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta asked whether that would hold at $60 oil.
Woods’ Answer to $60 Oil Is the Balance Sheet
Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said Exxon avoids committing to payouts it cannot sustain when prices are high. At the bottom of the cycle, it uses the balance sheet to supplement them. On the dividend he drew a hard line: “we’re not going to ever cut our dividend.”
Exxon has already done that this year, on a small scale. Senior Vice President and CFO Neil Hansen said that “at the beginning of the year, we were actually leaning into the balance sheet a little bit to keep those distributions consistent.” First-quarter free cash flow was $2,235 million, less than half the $5 billion a quarter a $20 billion annual buyback implies. The third quarter reversed that: net debt fell by more than $9 billion, and consensus has Exxon holding net cash by the end of 2027.
The forward math is tighter. At the new $1.07 quarterly rate and today’s share count, dividends cost about $17.6 billion a year. With the buyback, 2027 payouts would come to about $37.6 billion. That is roughly 70% of the around $53 billion in free cash flow analysts expect for 2027. Held at that level in 2028, payouts would take about 84% of the around $45 billion expected that year. Reported EPS of $3.72 also trailed the $4.00 GAAP consensus.
ExxonMobil Free Cash Flow (TIKR)
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Rovuma Adds Gas Later. The Balance Sheet Covers the Gap
On October 30, Exxon said an agreement with Eni will raise its operated stake in Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG to 50% while it exits its non-operated acreage there. Woods still expects a final investment decision by year-end, with stakeholder hurdles left to clear. Exxon has also assumed operatorship of Papua LNG and agreed to raise its stake to 34%.
Neither project adds cash soon. Industry reports put Rovuma’s first LNG around 2030 to 2031, so both decisions bring capital spending first. Nearer in, Woods expects Golden Pass Train 2, where Exxon is a 30% partner with QatarEnergy, to be substantially complete by December. He also expects Guyana’s fifth development, Uaru, to start up in the fourth quarter. Upstream earnings fell from the second quarter on lower prices and a Guyana entitlement effect.
Refining carries the bridge for now. Asked when fuel margins normalize, Woods said: “My guess would be it will take certainly well through next year before we see things getting back closer to normal, but it could be longer than that, frankly.” Exxon is also skipping its usual December plan event. It will reaffirm 2027 targets in a press release later this quarter and add detail on its late-January fourth-quarter call.
ExxonMobil Net Debt (TIKR)
Where the Buyback Stands Against Free Cash Flow
- Current Price: $187.25
- Street Target (Mean): ~$179 (~4% below the price)
- Implied 2027 Payout (Dividends + Buyback): ~$37.6 billion
- 2027E Free Cash Flow: ~$53 billion
- 2028E Free Cash Flow: ~$45 billion
- 2027E Net Debt: net cash of ~$3 billion
At consensus, 2027 cash covers the plan with room to spare. The risk is margins falling faster than Woods guesses, which would push more of the buyback onto the balance sheet sooner.
ExxonMobil Dividend Per Share (TIKR)
Conclusion
Papua New Guinea’s government said in September it is targeting a Papua LNG decision before December 15, and Exxon targets Rovuma’s by year-end. Both are capital commitments, not near-term cash. The number to track is 2027 free cash flow estimates. While they stay well above the roughly $37.6 billion the plan implies, the buyback runs on cash rather than debt.
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