Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The company has a market value of about $128.5 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $153.6 billion in revenue and $11.5 billion in operating profit, with net income of $8.6 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
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How Often Has Marathon Petroleum Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 15 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 75% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 82%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 15 positive 1D returns is 3.7%, and the median of the 5 negative ones is -4.5%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 6.7% and -9.4%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
Earnings Date 1D 5D 21D 8/4/2026 1.8% 4.3% 25.1% 5/5/2026 3.2% -0.02% 6.2% 2/3/2026 6.0% 15.5% 25.4% 11/4/2025 -6.1% 0.3% -2.8% 8/5/2025 0.6% -5.6% 7.2% 5/6/2025 0.9% 10.3% 10.1% 2/4/2025 6.7% 4.6% -7.6% 11/5/2024 3.2% 7.7% 4.4% 8/6/2024 5.5% 8.8% 6.5% 4/30/2024 -9.4% -8.8% -13.6% 1/30/2024 6.1% 6.9% 4.9% 10/31/2023 3.0% 2.1% 0.9% 8/1/2023 1.4% 5.2% 8.3% 5/2/2023 -4.5% -11.2% -13.7% 1/31/2023 -0.5% -9.9% 0.6% 11/1/2022 4.9% 5.2% 7.9% 8/2/2022 3.7% 0.1% 13.1% 5/3/2022 4.0% 2.0% 17.3% 2/2/2022 6.1% 7.1% 5.3% 11/2/2021 -3.9% -2.4% -8.6% Statistic 1D 5D 21D # Positive 15 14 15 # Negative 5 6 5 Median Positive 3.7% 5.2% 7.2% Median Negative -4.5% -7.2% -8.6% Max Positive 6.7% 15.5% 25.4% Max Negative -9.4% -11.2% -13.7%
Do Early Post-Earnings Moves Continue?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
History 1D vs next 5D 1D vs next 21D 5D vs next 21D 5 Years -0.02 0.19 -0.11 3 Years -0.10 0.05 0.02
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX) and PBF Energy (PBF) usually report before Marathon Petroleum, and have already reported this season. In the first trading session after their reports, Valero fell 2.4% (October 22), Phillips 66 rose 1.9% (October 28), and PBF rose 3.1% (October 29). The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Marathon Petroleum’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are VLO (-0.11), PSX (0.10), PBF (0.08); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Marathon Petroleum’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
MPC Earnings Date MPC 1D VLO 1D PSX 1D PBF 1D 8/4/2026 1.8% 3.4% n/a 15.4% 5/5/2026 3.2% 0.5% 5.1% 0.5% 2/3/2026 6.0% -0.8% n/a n/a 11/4/2025 -6.1% 7.0% 3.2% 1.3% 8/5/2025 0.6% -4.9% 0.5% -8.2% 5/6/2025 0.9% -1.0% -0.7% -3.0% 2/4/2025 6.7% -2.1% -2.5% n/a 11/5/2024 3.2% -1.2% -4.4% -1.1% 8/6/2024 5.5% 5.5% 4.8% -3.8% 4/30/2024 -9.4% 0.1% -3.7% n/a 1/30/2024 6.1% 3.3% n/a n/a 10/31/2023 3.0% -1.2% 0.8% n/a 8/1/2023 1.4% -0.6% n/a n/a 5/2/2023 -4.5% -1.7% n/a n/a 1/31/2023 -0.5% 4.6% n/a n/a 11/1/2022 4.9% -1.9% n/a 3.6% 8/2/2022 3.7% -1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 5/3/2022 4.0% 4.2% -0.5% 10.0% 2/2/2022 6.1% 0.8% -1.8% n/a Correlation – -0.11 0.10 0.08
An earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. A diversified portfolio spreads that risk. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses, re-balanced with rules, and has a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.
Source: www.trefis.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
