Key Takeaways
- Bloom Energy shares are up 146% in 2026 as AI data centers’ demand for onsite power drove three guidance raises, to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion of 2026 revenue.
- Bloom has outrun AI-power peers Vertiv and GE Vernova, but a short report, an October AI-spending selloff and a quarter of negative free cash flow have left it 38% below its June record close.
- Customer deposits rose to $661 million from $78 million this year, a stronger sign of demand than one quarter’s cash flow.
- Earnings estimates keep rising while the stock trades well below its usual forward P/E, which favors buying more, as long as the fourth quarter brings in the cash.
Bloom Energy (BE) is up 146% in 2026 through the Nov. 3 close, including a 9% gain that day as AI-power stocks rallied and Barclays upgraded the stock. Bloom joined the S&P 500 this year and has left fellow AI-power stocks Vertiv (VRT) and GE Vernova (GEV) well behind.
But it also sits 38% below its June 22 record close, after a short report, an October selloff in AI-power stocks and a quarter of negative free cash flow.
Three raises in nine months
Bloom started the year guiding to $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion of 2026 revenue. It raised that range in April, again in July, and a third time in October, to $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion.
Revenue rose 166% in the second quarter and 138% in the third. In the third quarter, the non-GAAP operating margin hit 23.1%, up from 8.9% a year earlier.
Founder and CEO KR Sridhar said in the second-quarter release that all the major US hyperscalers have approved Bloom’s systems for their AI factories, adding: “Bloom is now a standard for AI onsite power.”
Wall Street’s numbers moved with the guidance. Consensus normalized EPS now runs from $0.76 for 2025 to $3.27 for 2026 and $8.24 for 2028:
Bloom Energy (BE): normalized EPS, actual and consensus estimates, $ per share, fiscal 2024-2029 (TIKR)
That 2026 estimate was $2.69 in early October, before the third raise.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Bloom Energy. How many say “Buy”?
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Then the doubts piled up
On July 8, Hunterbrook Media, an outlet that disclosed it may profit if Bloom’s stock falls, alleged that Bloom relies on scandium from China. Bloom rejected the claims in a filing the next day, and a securities class action followed. The lawsuit’s allegations are unproven.
In the third quarter, revenue of $1.24 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.94 beat Wall Street’s estimates of about $1.07 billion and $0.69. The stock still fell 11% the next day. Free cash flow came in at negative $180.6 million, as revenue Bloom had booked but not yet billed jumped $430 million.
Bloom only turned free cash flow positive in 2024, after burning cash every year from 2021 to 2023:
Bloom Energy (BE): free cash flow, $ millions, fiscal 2021-2025 (TIKR)
CFO Simon Edwards said on the third-quarter call that the cash use is “not the beginning of a trend.” And customers are paying up front: deposits jumped to $661.4 million at Sept. 30, from $78.2 million at the start of the year.
That money is a firmer read on demand than one quarter of cash flow.
Vertiv and GE Vernova ran too, just not as far
Vertiv is up 46% this year and GE Vernova 40%, and both fell alongside Bloom in October’s AI-spending selloff.
Vertiv raised its outlook with its third-quarter results on Oct. 28, and CEO Giordano Albertazzi said “the largest infrastructure buildout” is accelerating. If he has that right, Bloom’s customers aren’t done ordering.
GE Vernova is now taking gas turbine reservations for delivery in 2032, CEO Scott Strazik said on its Oct. 28 call. Bloom says it can deliver power in as little as 90 days, so the longer that turbine line runs, the stronger Bloom’s pitch gets.
The fourth quarter has to bring in the cash
Bloom reports its fourth quarter early next year. Analysts expect about $214 million of free cash flow for 2026. Bloom had $41.6 million through September, so the fourth quarter needs more than $170 million.
Barclays leaned on those deposits when it upgraded the stock to Overweight on Nov. 3, though it cut its price target to $289 from $316. Still, two customers made up 69% of third-quarter revenue, so one slow payer could push that cash into next year.
Cheaper as it grows
Analysts kept raising their estimates while the stock fell, and the 2026 EPS figure is up 52% since June 30.
At the Nov. 3 close, Bloom traded at about 43x forward earnings, well below its three-year average of 76x.
So Bloom keeps getting cheaper against its own history while its earnings outlook climbs. That tips the answer toward buying more.
The fourth quarter still has to turn that booked revenue into cash. If free cash flow comes in negative again, October’s sellers will have had a point.
So what is Bloom Energy stock actually worth?
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