Energy Transfer LP ET raised its 2026 earnings outlook as stronger pipeline activity and favorable market conditions boosted results. Management also outlined a larger 2027 capital program anchored by contracted natural gas infrastructure.
The call centered on how much earnings strength can carry forward as new projects enter service and market volatility normalizes.
ET Raises Its 2026 Outlook
Co-CEO Thomas Long expects Energy Transfer’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be $19.7-$19.9 billion, up from its previous $18.8 billion to $19.1 billion range.
The revision incorporates improved operations and approximately $285 million from a resolved customer dispute expected to be recognized in the fourth quarter. It excludes the pending Vaquero acquisition.
Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $5.03 billion, up 31% year over year. Earnings of $0.33 per unit missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.41, while revenues of $37.1 billion exceeded the $35.6 billion estimate.
Energy Transfer LP Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Energy Transfer LP Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Energy Transfer LP price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Energy Transfer LP Quote
Energy Transfer Faces a Tough Optimization Comparison
During JPMorgan’s questioning, Group CFO Dylan Bramhall said optimization earnings could approach $1.5 billion in 2026 against a historical annual range of $600-$700 million.
Bramhall explained that commodity prices, spreads, volatility and additional volumes contributed across segments. Some favorable conditions could continue into 2027, but management deferred formal guidance.
The comparison matters because the NGL and crude businesses each expect approximately $100 million of derivative losses to offset third-quarter marketing gains in subsequent periods. Transportation and processing also benefited from rising volumes.
ET Expands Its Natural Gas Commitments
Co-CEO Marshall McCrea described the South Mississippi Pipeline as a link between production basins and growing Southeastern markets. The $1.6 billion project has long-term transportation commitments and an anticipated 2030 startup.
Responding to Barclays and Wolfe Research analysts, McCrea emphasized opportunities to move gas through existing upstream systems and serve additional customers without necessarily constructing major new pipelines.
Long reported more than 9.5 million MMBtu per day of demand-related agreements since early 2025, including power plants and data centers. Hugh Brinson’s second phase remains scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.
Energy Transfer Adds Permian Processing Capacity
Long outlined the approximately $2.6 billion Vaquero Midstream acquisition, expected to close in the fourth quarter. Its processing assets should add volumes to Energy Transfer’s natural gas and NGL network.
Executive vice president and head of Liquids Business Adam Arthur told a Mizuho analyst that Vaquero’s existing connections make it a suitable bolt-on acquisition. Bramhall clarified that stated acquisition multiples exclude downstream synergies.
Long also discussed the approved Bear II processing plant for 2027 and Frac X at Mont Belvieu for the first half of 2029, supporting anticipated Permian volumes.
ET Upsizes Export Infrastructure
Long said that Energy Transfer increased the Nederland ethane export expansion from 240,000 to approximately 300,000 barrels per day. The project also adds LPG capacity and two ship docks.
At Marcus Hook, the company expects expanded ethane export capacity of approximately 100,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2027. Agreements cover approximately 75% of that capacity.
Arthur said that discussions with Asian buyers reinforced management’s view of persistent international demand. Higher export volumes supported the quarter’s NGL transportation and services results.
Energy Transfer Balances Spending and Contract Risk
Long projected growth capital spending of $5.4-$5.6 billion in 2026 and approximately $7 billion in 2027. Most projects carry long-term contracts and target mid-teen returns.
Asked by Barclays about spending beyond 2027, Bramhall described that year as the current high point, with annual investment potentially exceeding $5 billion for several subsequent years.
Addressing Mizuho’s credit-risk question, Bramhall said that data-center agreements generally involve investment-grade counterparties or parental guarantees. Noninvestment-grade contracts typically require letters of credit, surety bonds or other protections.
ET Keeps Execution at the Center
Management’s priorities remain completing contracted projects, connecting pipelines and bringing newly built capacity into service. Long stressed disciplined spending and execution.
Project timing and utilization remain central to future performance, particularly as this year’s unusually strong optimization earnings create a demanding comparison.
Energy Transfer’s Zacks Rank and Style Scores
ET carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present, reflecting a neutral near-term ranking. Its Value Score of A, Growth Score of A and VGM Score of A indicate favorable characteristics across those measures, while its Momentum Score of D points to weaker price-trend attributes. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Style Scores complement rather than replace the earnings-revision-based Zacks Rank. Although strong value and growth grades are favorable, the Hold ranking calls for a measured interpretation. The Zacks Rank can change as analysts revise estimates following the latest results.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Source: finance.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
