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Shares of Vistra (VST) fell 25.1% in the month leading up to November 4, 2026. The stock ended that day at its lowest close of the past year, while peers Constellation Energy and NRG Energy each lost more than 18% over the same period. For shareholders, the concern is that a market-wide sell-off could add to those losses. So how far has Vistra stock fallen when the whole market sold off?
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In Past Sell-Offs, Vistra Fell As Much As 44%
Vistra stock fell 44% during the 2020 COVID-19 shock, compared to 34% for the S&P 500. This marked its largest decline across the eight market sell-offs it has experienced since it began trading in May 2017. The 2025 tariff shock came close, with Vistra down 42% while the index lost 19%.
Across all eight sell-offs, Vistra fell 18.5% on average, compared to 15.2% for the S&P 500. The company’s two worst sell-offs, when the stock fell far more than the market, account for this larger average decline. In the other six periods, Vistra fell slightly less than the index on average. Following each drop, the shares eventually returned to their earlier high. The median wait from the low was 1.8 months, and the longest wait, after the 2020 shock, was 11.1 months.
Vistra Earns Wider Margins Than In Mid-2024, Owes More
Vistra recorded a 19.4% operating margin over the twelve months ending in June 2026, up from 13.0% two years earlier. The margin stood at 19.7% a year earlier, so over the past year it has held near that level rather than widening further. Sales growth, however, has slowed. Revenue rose 3.8% over the twelve months ending in June 2026, after a 31.6% increase the year before, and revenue fell 5.5% from a year earlier in fiscal Q2 2026. Retail, the company’s largest segment, brought in $14.3 billion in fiscal 2025, up 12.1% from fiscal 2024. That was down from Retail’s 21.0% growth in fiscal 2024.
Vistra also carries higher debt. Its total debt reached $19.9 billion at the end of June 2026, up from $16.9 billion two years earlier. This debt equals 49.1% of the company’s market value at the November 4 close, compared to 19.2% for the S&P 500. In September, Vistra priced $1.5 billion of notes due 2057.
Management Says Texas Power Prices Have Softened
Management said on its August 7, 2026 call that power prices in Texas have softened. It added that Texas forward prices for 2027 are meaningfully lower than they were on October 31, 2025, when its 2027 outlook was set. Higher prices on the PJM grid, its hedges and a nuclear tax credit make up part of that gap, but not all of it, so management said Vistra is trending toward the lower end of its 2027 adjusted EBITDA range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion.
Two deals sit outside that range: the Cogentrix purchase, which Vistra completed on October 30, and its nuclear power contracts with Meta. Based on its earlier disclosures, management said the two agreements could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 midpoint, absent other changes such as further moves in power prices.
The number to watch is Vistra’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook. Management said it expects to update this figure alongside third-quarter results, which Vistra is expected to report on November 6, 2026.
Now You Know Vistra. Here Is A Better Way To Invest
Before you decide on VST, consider owning 30 quality companies instead of one. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105% since its September 2020 launch, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000.
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