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The price of PG&E (PCG) stock in three years depends as much on what investors will pay for the company’s earnings as on how fast those earnings grow. Shares lost 16.0% in the year to November 4, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 14.9%. PG&E now trades at 9.5 times earnings, coming in below the 13.9 average of its last twelve quarter-end readings. So what could a buyer at today’s $13.40 make over three years?
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What Could PG&E Shares Be Worth In Three Years?
Based on our assumptions, PG&E shares would be worth about $16.04 three years after the November 4, 2026 close. That is 19.7% above today’s price, or about 6.2% a year before dividends. The table below compares PG&E’s last twelve months against this three-year scenario.
Today In three years (scenario) Revenue $25.8 billion $28.7 billion Net margin 12.0% 11.5% Earnings $3.09 billion $3.31 billion P/E 9.5 10.7 Share price $13.40 $16.04
This gain comes in about equal parts from higher revenue and a higher P/E, while a slightly lower net margin takes back part of the advance. Revenue grows 3.7% a year in the scenario. That pace equals nine-tenths of the 4.1% PG&E reported for the latest twelve months. The higher P/E rests on our assumption that today’s multiple moves 40% of the way toward 1.3 times its current level, a target below the 13.9 average.
PG&E’s Growth Comes From Investing In Its System
Management said on its October 22, 2026 call that customer capital investment remains the primary driver of earnings growth. PG&E has also brought 174 megawatts of data center projects online since 2024.
That investment is now smaller than planned. PG&E cited high financing costs when it cut $2 billion from its 2027 capital plan, and the company expects to spend $11.4 billion in 2027. Management said the cut will affect system expansion to meet growing demand. In its 2027 general rate case, PG&E received a proposed decision that would let it collect $456 million of interim rate recovery over 12 months.
Core earnings per share, management’s adjusted measure, were $0.41 in the September 2026 quarter, compared with reported earnings of 34 cents a share. Our scenario uses reported earnings. Management gave no revenue forecast in its October 22 release. The company guided core earnings per share to $1.64 to $1.66 for 2026 and $1.78 to $1.82 for 2027. It has stopped guiding beyond 2027 during a strategic review. This review involves options from corporate ring fencing to sales and separations, and PG&E expects to share the outcome no later than summer 2027.
How Does PG&E’s Upside Shift In Other Scenarios?
The table below changes one thing at a time, altering either one of the three assumptions or the number of years. Everything else stays as in the scenario.
If instead Upside Nothing changes (the scenario) 19.7% Revenue growth of 1.7% a year instead of 3.7% 12.9% Net margin of 10.4% in year three instead of 11.5% 7.8% P/E of 9.5 in year three instead of 10.7 6.9% 5 years at the same assumptions instead of 3 28.7%
Extending the timeline to 5 years at the same assumptions is the only change in the table that lifts the upside.
The net margin is the one drag. PG&E’s 12.0% net margin over the latest twelve months sits above its 10.4% average at the twelve earlier quarter-ends, spanning September 2023 to June 2026. The scenario sets the year-three margin at 70% of today’s margin plus 30% of that average. Revenue growth has also swung, going from 9.1% in the twelve months to September 2024 to a 0.3% dip a year later.
Our assumptions hold the share count at today’s level. Yet PG&E’s diluted shares rose 6.8% from the September 2023 quarter to the September 2026 quarter, and more shares would leave each one with less of the gain. Management said on the call that the company would not issue equity at the current stock price.
Three years of owning PG&E stock would bring no gain in the share price if revenue shrank 2.4% a year, compared with the 4.1% growth of the latest twelve months. A holder would also make nothing if the net margin fell from today’s 12.0% to 9.6%. The same holds true if the P/E ended at 8.9, against 9.5 today.
In this scenario, PG&E’s three-year gain comes as much from a higher P/E as from higher sales. The company’s revenue growth over the twelve months to December 2026 is the number to watch in its next report, which is expected in February 2027.
Sitting On A Big Gain In PG&E?
After a run like this, the hard questions are personal: hold, trim or sell, and the tax on each. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to keep part of the upside, protect the rest and spread the tax over years.
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