Key Takeaways
- Bloom Energy fell 12% in the past week as Democrats’ midterm sweep sank AI stocks, despite new deals with NTT DATA and California Resources.
- Bloom made 97% of its third-quarter revenue in the US, so slower US data-center approvals are the main risk, and Oracle’s spending is the thing to watch.
- Consensus still puts Bloom’s 2028 normalized EPS at more than 10 times its 2025 level, which makes the drop a buying opportunity.
Bloom Energy (BE) is down 12% in the past week, though its own news was all good, including a fuel-cell plan with California Resources (CRC).
Investors sold on the election anyway, and the customer behind Bloom’s biggest order sank with it. Oracle (ORCL), which signed a 2.8-gigawatt deal with Bloom, fell 11%.
Bloom’s customers kept signing
California Resources said after Monday’s close that the two will look at building 1 gigawatt or more of Bloom fuel cells with carbon capture in California. It’s non-binding, and we’ll learn whether California Resources is paying for it when it sets its 2027 budget early next year. Then on Thursday morning, NTT DATA said it’ll deploy 900 megawatts of Bloom’s onsite power at data centers worldwide, with shipments starting in 2027.
Investors dumped the whole AI trade
Democrats won control of Congress on Tuesday, and AI stocks sold off on fears the data-center buildout would stall. Bloom has more riding on that than most, since 97% of its third-quarter revenue came from the US. Texas’s incoming governor, Gina Hinojosa, has also promised a moratorium on new data-center approvals.
That makes Oracle the customer to watch. It burned $5 billion of free cash flow in the quarter ended Aug. 31 building data centers. Results come in mid-December, and any sign it’s slowing that build would put Bloom’s biggest order in question.
TIKR tracks 29 analysts on Bloom Energy. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Bloom Energy, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Bloom Energy’s Analyst Ratings
I’d buy this drop
Consensus has Bloom earning $8.24 a share in 2028, up from $0.76 last year:
Bloom Energy (BE): normalized EPS, actual and consensus estimates, $ per share, fiscal 2024-2029 (TIKR)
Analysts hadn’t cut those estimates as of Wednesday, and the week’s orders give them no reason to. Bloom traded at 40x forward earnings on Nov. 2, well below its three-year average of 76x. The week’s drop has since taken it to about 35x.
No customer has pulled back, and NTT DATA’s deal gives Bloom room to grow if US approvals slow. At 51% below its 52-week high, I’d be a buyer.
Of course, if Congress or the states do slow data-center permits, those 2028 estimates would come down first. Bloom’s fourth-quarter report early next year, with its backlog and 2027 guidance, is the bigger test.
So what is Bloom Energy stock actually worth?
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