Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 9, 2026. The company has a market value of about $86.3 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $31.3 billion in revenue and $4.5 billion in operating profit, with net income of $3.5 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Constellation Energy’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 18 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 61% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 64%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 5.9%, and the median of the 7 negative ones is -1.5%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 16.9% and -12.5%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
Earnings Date 1D 5D 21D 8/6/2026 -1.5% 5.1% 7.7% 5/11/2026 -1.3% -11.9% -17.0% 2/24/2026 6.4% 11.4% 0.5% 11/7/2025 2.0% -4.4% 1.9% 8/7/2025 -0.6% -3.2% -10.8% 5/6/2025 10.3% 14.9% 20.8% 2/18/2025 2.6% -15.6% -33.4% 11/4/2024 -12.5% -7.3% -4.0% 8/6/2024 6.5% 10.4% 4.6% 5/9/2024 3.8% 7.4% -4.7% 2/27/2024 16.9% 32.1% 39.4% 11/6/2023 6.5% 4.0% 1.3% 8/3/2023 5.9% 10.0% 9.3% 5/4/2023 2.7% 3.8% 14.8% 2/16/2023 -0.4% -7.9% -10.4% 11/8/2022 -6.4% 0.6% -1.5% 8/4/2022 0.4% 14.8% 23.1% 5/12/2022 -6.6% 0.1% 4.5% Statistic 1D 5D 21D # Positive 11 12 11 # Negative 7 6 7 Median Positive 5.9% 8.7% 7.7% Median Negative -1.5% -7.6% -10.4% Max Positive 16.9% 32.1% 39.4% Max Negative -12.5% -15.6% -33.4%
Correlation Between 1D, 5D And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 5D and the following 21 days, at 0.42 across 18 releases: the early move has tended to continue in the same direction. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report.
History 1D vs next 5D 1D vs next 21D 5D vs next 21D 5 Years 0.12 0.04 0.42 3 Years 0.33 0.14 0.40
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
NextEra Energy (NEE), Duke Energy (DUK) and Southern (SO) usually report about 4 to 13 days before Constellation Energy, and have already reported this season. This time NextEra slipped 0.7% on its October 21 report, while Duke rose 0.4% and Southern 0.2% on their November 5 reports. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Constellation Energy’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are NEE (0.20), DUK (0.30), SO (-0.09); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Constellation Energy’s.
CEG Earnings Date CEG 1D NEE 1D DUK 1D SO 1D 8/6/2026 -1.5% -0.01% -0.01% -1.8% 5/11/2026 -1.3% 6.9% 0.1% 3.4% 2/24/2026 6.4% n/a 1.6% 4.4% 11/7/2025 2.0% -2.9% n/a 1.7% 8/7/2025 -0.6% -6.1% -0.1% -0.4% 5/6/2025 10.3% 0.9% n/a -0.5% 2/18/2025 2.6% 5.2% -2.1% n/a 11/4/2024 -12.5% 1.5% n/a 1.9% 8/6/2024 6.5% 4.6% n/a 4.8% 5/9/2024 3.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 2/27/2024 16.9% n/a n/a -1.4% 11/6/2023 6.5% 7.0% 0.4% 2.5% 8/3/2023 5.9% -0.1% n/a n/a 5/4/2023 2.7% -1.5% n/a 1.3% 2/16/2023 -0.4% -8.7% -1.6% n/a 11/8/2022 -6.4% 4.7% 0.4% -0.7% 8/4/2022 0.4% 1.7% n/a 3.5% 5/12/2022 -6.6% -6.5% -0.5% 2.9% Correlation – 0.20 0.30 -0.09
An earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. A diversified portfolio spreads that risk. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses, rebalanced with rules, and has a track record of outperforming a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000.
Source: www.trefis.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
