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DATE
Friday, Nov. 6, 2026
CALL PARTICIPANTS
- Vice President of Investor Relations – Eric Micek
- President and Chief Executive Officer – James Burke
- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer – Kristopher Moldovan
- President, Vistra Retail – Stacey Dore
TAKEAWAYS
- Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA — $2.378 billion for the third quarter, representing a more than 50% increase compared to $1.581 billion in the third quarter 2025.
- Net Income — $1,140 million for the third quarter, driven by higher EBITDA and a $375 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions.
- 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance — $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, narrowed from previous ranges to reflect higher midpoints following record performance and the Cogentrix acquisition.
- 2026 Adjusted FCFbG — $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, with the midpoint raised due to strong year-to-date results.
- 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance — $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion, including contributions from the Cogentrix assets and the Meta power purchase agreement.
- 2027 Adjusted FCFbG Guidance — $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion, reflecting structurally improved demand and multiyear profitability trends.
- Texas Segment Adjusted EBITDA — $1,227 million for the quarter, compared to $784 million in the prior year period.
- East Segment Adjusted EBITDA — $979 million for the quarter, compared to $719 million in the third quarter 2025.
- Retail Segment Adjusted EBITDA — $98 million, driven by favorable margins and higher customer volumes resulting from record-hot weather.
- Cogentrix Acquisition — $4 billion net purchase price for approximately 5,500 megawatts of capacity, closed on Oct. 30, 2026.
- Acquisition Multiples — less than 7x forward EBITDA on average across more than 12 gigawatts of acquisitions including Energy Harbor, Lotus, and Cogentrix.
- Share Repurchases — approximately $1 billion completed in 2026 through Nov. 2, part of a $6.7 billion total program since Nov. 2021.
- Share Repurchase Authorization — $1.5 billion in additional authorization approved by the board, leaving a total of $2.5 billion remaining.
- Leverage Ratio — 2.8x net debt to adjusted EBITDA on a pro forma basis following the Cogentrix closing and preferred stock redemption.
- Thermal Fleet Availability — nearly 95% during the third quarter, reflecting successful spring maintenance despite record summer demand peaks.
- ERCOT Load Growth — 4% to 6% projected through 2030, driven by industrial activity, population growth, and data center demand.
- PJM Load Growth — 2% to 3% projected through 2030, supported by ongoing electrification and robust energy demand.
- Generation Capacity — approximately 50,000 megawatts total, including 25,000 megawatts of modern combined cycle gas generation.
- Free Cash Flow Per Share — projected to grow from approximately $10.50 in 2025 to $14 in 2027.
- Odessa PPA — 20-year agreement for 207 megawatts with New Era Energy and Digital at the Odessa combined cycle gas plant.
- Available Liquidity — $8.923 billion as of Sept. 30, 2026, though pro forma liquidity is approximately $5.4 billion following the Cogentrix acquisition.
- Meta PPA — 20-year agreement for operating capacity at the Perry nuclear plant, expected to contribute to 2027 results.
- Illinois Solar Operations — 405 megawatts at the Pulaski Solar Facility commenced operations under a power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
- Generation Hedges — 98% of expected volumes for 2027 and 78% for 2028 are hedged as of Oct. 30, 2026.
- Capital Return Target — at least $300 million in annual dividends alongside a target of at least $1 billion in annual share repurchases through 2028.
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RISKS
- Burke noted that “ERCOT prices, however, have been trending lower,” citing factors such as the conversion of crypto mining facilities to data centers and a pause in permitting.
- Burke indicated that load interconnect queues were “overstated across the country and especially in ERCOT,” due to speculative developers keeping options open.
- Dore stated that the “load interconnection process does continue to be a timing constraint” for gas asset projects, as customers typically require grid connections.
SUMMARY
Vistra Corp. (VST +10.55%) reported record third-quarter performance for 2026, highlighted by a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA and the strategic expansion of its generation portfolio through the close of the Cogentrix acquisition. Management reported that the company achieved nearly 95% availability across its thermal fleet during a quarter marked by record peak demand in both PJM and ERCOT markets. The company stated that its multiyear profitability trajectory is supported by structurally improved demand from industrial activity and data centers, leading to the initiation of 2027 guidance and a significant expansion of its share repurchase program. Management confirmed its focus on maintaining investment-grade credit metrics while executing on a diversified growth strategy that includes nuclear uprates, gas-to-coal conversions, and new gas-fired generation in the Permian Basin.
- The Cogentrix transaction is expected to deliver high single-digit free cash flow accretion in the near term, rising to double-digit accretion starting in 2029.
- Management cited line of sight to approximately 70% growth in adjusted free cash flow before growth per share from 2027 to 2030, assuming consistent capital allocation to share repurchases.
- The company stated it is advocating for higher collateral requirements and take-or-pay agreements in load interconnection queues to focus on high-quality projects.
- Burke stated that the recent election results preserve the company’s fundamental view of market opportunities, noting, “our team is prepared to continue executing.”
- Dore indicated that the elimination of the IRAS proposal in PJM has provided customers with more clarity on how to satisfy resource adequacy requirements through bilateral contracts.
- The company anticipates that PJM nuclear uprates will begin contributing to earnings in 2031, following capital expenditures during the current planning period.
- Management reported that the board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, with the full $2.5 billion remaining authorization expected to be utilized by the end of 2028.
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
- ARO: Asset Retirement Obligation, a legal obligation associated with the retirement of a tangible long-lived asset.
- CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine, a highly efficient form of power generation that uses both gas and steam turbines.
- ERCOT: Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the organization that manages the flow of electric power to 26 million Texas customers.
- FCFbG: Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before
Source: www.fool.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
