Why Sudan’s Civil War Is Becoming a U.S. National Security Threat | OilPrice.com
James Durso
James D. Durso is the Managing Director of Corsair LLC, a supply chain consultancy. In 2013 to2015, he was the Chief Executive Officer of AKM…
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By James Durso – Nov 09, 2026, 3:00 PM CST
- Sudan’s civil war poses a major U.S. security threat, jeopardizing Red Sea shipping, regional stability and counterterrorism efforts while creating opportunities for Iranian influence.
- Sudan’s vast mineral resources offer strategic opportunities, including gold, uranium and chromium, but conflict and weak governance threaten responsible development.
- Washington is urged to pursue a civilian-led peace settlement, combining diplomatic pressure, humanitarian assistance and potential agricultural and critical minerals partnerships.
Sudan Is a U.S. National Security Interest, Not Just a Humanitarian Crisis
by
James Durso
Sudan’s devastating civil war is often described as a humanitarian catastrophe. It is that, unquestionably, but for the United States, the conflict is also a strategic challenge involving Red Sea security, Iran’s regional influence, counterterrorism, international trade, and access to critical minerals.
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Washington should not treat Sudan as a distant crisis to be dealt with after more pressing matters. Its outcome will affect the security of a strategically important region connecting the Middle East, Africa, and international maritime trade. A prolonged conflict risks exporting insecurity across borders, complicating regional efforts to contain armed groups and manage competing external interests. For Washington, the concern is that its continued fragmentation could compound instability across a region critical to international commerce.
Sudan occupies a critical position along the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important commercial waterways that handles 12–15% of international maritime trade and nearly 30% of global container traffic. Instability there is not another “Africa problem.” It threatens shipping routes, regional partners, and the broader security environment surrounding the Suez Canal and the Horn of Africa. The U.S. has a direct interest in preventing Sudan’s territory from becoming a haven for extremist organizations, transnational criminal networks, or antagonistic foreign powers seeking strategic footholds near U.S. allies Egypt, Israeli, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Related: Brent Crashes 7% on Iran Peace Hopes Despite Fresh Saudi Pipeline Attack
Iran’s renewed relationship with Sudan illustrates how the country’s political orientation can change. Though Sudan joined the Abraham Accords in 2021, normalization of ties with Israel stalled due to the civil war. Tehran and Khartoum restored diplomatic ties in 2024 – after severing them in 2016 – when they backed opposing sides in the Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry. Their bilateral relationship includes military cooperation and the supply of battle-tested drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces. A fragmented state with competing armed authorities gives Iran and other outside powers opportunities to cultivate relationships, move materiel, and expand their influence. A sovereign government able to control its territory would be better positioned to resist external coercion and avoid becoming an arena for regional competition.
Counterterrorism is equally important. State collapse, ungoverned territory, and disrupted security institutions create conditions in which extremist networks can operate, recruit, and move across borders. Sudan’s future will affect the ability of neighboring countries and international partners to address these threats. Preventing a prolonged breakdown is therefore a matter of U.S. security, not an act of charity.
The proliferation of drones, advanced weapons, and foreign military support makes Sudan’s conflict difficult to contain. External support networks help sustain the combatants’ belief that they can achieve their objectives by force, while expanding the war’s potential consequences for neighboring countries. Washington should therefore treat efforts to restrict the flow of weapons and other military assistance as part of its broader diplomatic strategy, coordinating with international partners to raise the costs of prolonging the conflict.
The humanitarian emergency also has direct security implications. Famine, mass internal displacement, disruption of the provision of aid supplies, and the destruction of civilian infrastructure threaten to destabilize Sudan’s neighbors and prolong a conflict that already extends beyond its original battlefields. Washington’s recent calls for expanded humanitarian access are necessary, but emergency relief cannot substitute for a political strategy. The United States should use its diplomatic influence to press the warring parties to permit aid delivery while linking efforts to alleviate immediate suffering to a durable ceasefire and the restoration of legitimate national institutions.
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There is also an economic dimension. Sudan possesses substantial natural resources, including gold, uranium, and chromium alongside significant agricultural potential. Responsible development could support economic recovery, create commercial opportunities, and diversify supply chains for strategically important materials. As Washington works to reduce dependence on foreign sources of critical minerals, Sudan merits serious attention. That opportunity, however, depends on transparent resource governance, enforceable agreements, functioning infrastructure, and a legitimate government capable of ensuring that revenues benefit the country rather than armed factions.
What kind of political settlement can secure these interests?
The fight between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group primarily supported by the United Arab Emirates, has demonstrated the limits of a military solution. A settlement that merely divides territory, resources, or political influence between two armed factions could formalize the country’s fragmentation rather than resolve it. It would risk leaving competing chains of command, parallel economic networks, and vulnerable communities in place, creating conditions for renewed conf
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