Key Takeaways
- Axiom Investors opened an AMD stake, added 48% to GE Vernova and built up Lumentum in the June quarter.
- All three have fallen at least 23%, while AMD and GE Vernova’s average analyst targets still sit far above their prices.
- Lumentum trades as a Marvell stake, and the deal is worth far less than when announced.
- GE Vernova has the strongest case: orders and cash guidance rose while its forward P/E fell.
Axiom Investors, which manages $28.1 billion, made Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), GE Vernova (GEV) and Lumentum (LITE) three of its largest stock positions by June 30. All three have fallen hard since, and Lumentum agreed to be bought by Marvell Technology (MRVL).
The positions show up in Axiom’s 13F for the quarter ended June 30, filed Aug. 12, which lists $11.56 billion of US stocks in 133 positions.
AMD Was New, and Its Quarter Delivered
Axiom opened its AMD stake during the quarter, ending with 879,325 shares worth $511 million, 4.4% of its 13F stocks. The stock is 23% below its June 30 price, but third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion beat estimates, data center revenue rose 97% to $8.5 billion, and management guided to about $17 billion for the fourth quarter.
Analysts’ average target has more than doubled in a year to $656, its high:
AMD Stock Mean Price Target: November 2025-November 2026 (TIKR)
Even the lowest target in the consensus, $490, is above Friday’s $449 close. The risk is what AMD gave up to win AI customers: OpenAI and Meta hold warrants for up to 320 million shares, 19.6% of its shares outstanding, which led to a $1.1 billion third-quarter charge.
GE Vernova Got a Bigger Bet
Axiom added 48% to its GE Vernova stake, ending June with 411,058 shares worth $483 million, or 4.2% of its 13F stocks. The stock is down 34% since, and it sank again after Democrats won Congress.
Yet third-quarter orders rose 96% organically to $29.3 billion. Management expects at least 130 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract by year-end, up from at least 125, and raised this year’s free cash flow guidance to $16-$17 billion from $11.5-$12.5 billion. Most of that cash is customers’ money paid in advance: $5.3 billion of the third quarter’s $5.4 billion came from working capital, mostly down payments.
The consensus target has slipped from its August high of $1,239 to $1,183:
GEV Stock Mean Price Target: November 2025-November 2026 (TIKR)
GLJ Research, though, kept its Sell rating on Oct. 30 and raised its target from $470 to $540, still well below Friday’s $774 close.
TIKR Tracks 53 Analysts on AMD. How Many Say “Buy”?
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Lumentum Is Now a Marvell Bet
Axiom grew a tiny Lumentum stake into 406,459 shares worth $349 million, or 3.0% of its 13F stocks. Then on Nov. 2, Marvell agreed to pay 4.5 of its shares for each Lumentum share. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 136% to $1.26 billion, yet the stock is down 37% since June 30.
Analysts’ average target has risen from $228 a year ago to $1,100:
LITE Stock Mean Price Target: November 2025-November 2026 (TIKR)
That target hasn’t caught up with the deal. The offer was worth about $1,132 a share when announced, but with Marvell at $134 on Thursday it was worth about $601, and Lumentum traded about 15% below that. A Chinese antitrust review could also take 12 to 18 months.
The Numbers Favor GE Vernova
AMD trades at about 30x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 35x, with 2027 EPS expected at $16.01. That’s fair if its Helios AI racks ship at scale next year, but the warrants split the upside with OpenAI and Meta.
GE Vernova’s case is cleaner. At about 33x forward earnings, it trades below every quarter-end level since its 2024 spinoff, while analysts’ 2028 EPS estimate has risen to $37.11.
If I could follow Axiom into only one, it’d be GE Vernova. The risk is a Democratic Congress slowing data center building, since about 20% of its contracted gas gigawatts serve data centers.
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