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DATE
Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026
CALL PARTICIPANTS
- Vice President Investor Relations – Gavin Wylie
- President and Chief Executive Officer – François Poirier
- Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines – Tina Faraca
- Executive Vice-President and President, Power and Energy Solutions – Greg Grant
- Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer – Sean O’Donnell
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TAKEAWAYS
- Comparable EBITDA — $3.0 billion for the third quarter, representing a 13% increase versus the same period last year due to strong asset availability and constructive commercial settlements.
- Comparable EPS — $0.94 for the third quarter, reflecting a 22% increase year over year driven by higher pipeline flows and contributions from power generation assets.
- 2026 EBITDA Guidance — $11.8 billion to $12.0 billion, representing a $200 million increase from previous estimates due to outperformance across all four business segments.
- 2027 EBITDA Outlook — $12.3 billion to $12.5 billion, supported by the scheduled entry of new projects into service and continued operational optimization.
- Net Capital Expenditures — $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion for 2026, with the company trending toward the lower end of its annual guidance range.
- Crossroads Expansion — $1.8 billion project sanctioned to provide 1.4 Bcf per day of incremental capacity to support power generation demand in the U.S. Midwest by 2030.
- American Midwest Project — $400 million total estimated cost, with a $100 million proportionate equity share from the company, to add 1.0 Bcf per day of capacity on the Northern Border system.
- Coastal GasLink Phase 2 — $4.9 billion total cost expansion, with the company’s equity contribution limited to $250 million, to increase firm transportation capacity to 4.5 Bcf per day.
- Origination Funnel — $40 billion in potential projects, consisting of $25 billion in natural gas pipeline opportunities and $15 billion in power and energy solutions.
- Bruce Power Availability — 96.6% for the third quarter, reflecting the return of Unit 3 to service and efficient operation of the nuclear fleet.
- Power and Energy Solutions EBITDA — $360 million for the quarter, a 35% increase compared to last year’s third quarter following the return of Bruce Power Unit 3.
- U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline EBITDA — $1.246 billion for the quarter, rising 17% year over year due to $2 billion in new assets placed into service.
- Mexico Natural Gas Pipeline EBITDA — $446 million for the quarter, an 8% increase driven by higher flows to power plants.
- AI and Innovation EBITDA — $100 million target for 2026, with an additional $100 million goal for 2027 through AI-enabled capacity management and supply chain efficiencies.
- Debt-to-EBITDA — 4.55 to 4.6 expected by the end of 2026, providing headroom against the company’s long-term target of 4.75.
- Annual Net Capital Spending — $8 billion to $9 billion projected for the 2029 to 2031 period to support the mid-to-high end of the five-year growth outlook.
- Total Project Backlog — $30 billion in sanctioned and pending approval projects through 2031, with 80% of the sanctioned capital dedicated to natural gas pipelines.
- Canadian Natural Gas Pipeline EBITDA — $953 million for the quarter, compared to $913 million in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting higher Western receipts.
- In-Service Assets — $2.5 billion of projects placed into service year-to-date, with the company on track for $3.4 billion total by the end of the year.
- Bruce Power Investment Capacity — $2 billion to $3 billion in annual investment capacity expected to be unlocked in the early 2030s as major component replacement programs conclude.
SUMMARY
TC Energy Corporation (TRP -0.05%) reported a 13% increase in comparable EBITDA for the third quarter and raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance. Management stated the company is transitioning to a five-year outlook through 2031, projecting a compound annual growth rate for comparable EBITDA of 5% to 7%. The company reported that its origination pipeline for new projects has increased to $40 billion, with over two-thirds of capital opportunities now linked to rising power demand. Executives indicated that the company is maintaining its debt-to-EBITDA target at or below 4.75 times while self-funding its expanded capital program through internal cash flow and operational optimizations.
- Poirier noted that over two-thirds of the company’s $40 billion capital opportunity set is tied to growing power demand, stating, “Regardless of the demand driver, the strength of our footprint, and the ability to provide complementary, reliable solutions with speed to market positions us to capture and monetize this opportunity set.”
- The company is utilizing artificial intelligence for capacity management, with Faraca reporting that these initiatives generated $65 million in incremental EBITDA year-to-date.
- Management identified Canadian permitting reform, specifically Bill C-39, as a potential catalyst that could reduce project timelines by one to two years through greater regulatory certainty.
- Grant noted that the current energy landscape presents unique opportunities for the company’s infrastructure, stating, “That combination of operating experience, infrastructure, market presence positions us to serve one of the fastest-evolving power markets we have seen in decades.”
- Unit 4 of the Bruce Power nuclear facility is currently four months ahead of its original in-service schedule, which Grant attributed to robotic tooling innovations pioneered during the Unit 3 replacement.
- The company reported that its weighted average build multiple for sanctioned projects is approximately 6.5 times, which aligns with its long-term financial discipline targets.
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
- MCR (Major Component Replacement): A long-term maintenance and refurbishment program at the Bruce Power nuclear facility involving the replacement of critical reactor components.
- Bcf/d (Billion Cubic Feet per Day): A standard unit of measurement for natural gas flow rates in pipelines.
- TCO Pool: A critical trading hub and pricing point located on the Columbia Gas Transmission system in the Appalachian Basin.
- CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad): The state-owned electric utility in Mexico and a primary customer for natural gas pipelines in that jurisdiction.
- Take-or-Pay Contract: A commercial agreement where a buyer must either take a product or pay a penalty, ensuring stable revenue for the infrastructure provider.
- Build Multiple: A financial ratio calculated by dividing a project’s capital expenditure by its expected annual comparable EBITDA.
- FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission): The U.S. federal agency that regulates the transmission and sale of electricity, natural gas, and oil.
Full Conference Call Transcript
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