NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, November 9, 2026. The company has a market value of about $17.0 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $33.1 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in operating profit, with net income of $849 million.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how NRG Energy stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
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NRG Energy’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 53% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 45%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 4.5%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -4.9%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 26.2% and -15.5%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
Earnings Date 1D 5D 21D 8/4/2026 -15.5% -14.1% -20.9% 5/6/2026 -4.3% -12.8% -15.3% 2/24/2026 4.3% -0.5% -14.4% 11/6/2025 -1.8% -2.5% -5.9% 8/6/2025 -13.6% -8.9% -14.0% 5/12/2025 26.2% 33.4% 24.6% 2/26/2025 10.6% -2.1% -4.9% 11/8/2024 -0.3% -4.9% -0.3% 8/8/2024 8.2% 14.3% 6.2% 5/7/2024 -5.8% 5.9% 4.7% 2/28/2024 1.2% 11.0% 23.3% 11/2/2023 2.9% 4.1% 10.3% 8/8/2023 -2.0% -1.4% 1.3% 5/4/2023 -6.2% -3.9% -0.4% 2/16/2023 -4.9% -6.5% -12.1% 11/7/2022 1.9% 2.4% -21.8% 8/4/2022 4.7% 5.0% 10.1% 5/6/2022 9.8% 9.8% 22.6% 2/24/2022 3.6% 2.4% -1.1% Statistic 1D 5D 21D # Positive 10 9 8 # Negative 9 10 11 Median Positive 4.5% 5.9% 10.2% Median Negative -4.9% -4.4% -12.1% Max Positive 26.2% 33.4% 24.6% Max Negative -15.5% -14.1% -21.8%
Correlation Between 1D, 5D And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
History 1D vs next 5D 1D vs next 21D 5D vs next 21D 5 Years 0.00 -0.02 0.11 3 Years -0.04 -0.07 0.17
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Exelon (EXC), NextEra Energy (NEE) and American Electric Power (AEP) usually report about 6 to 14 days before NRG Energy, and have already reported this season. This time Exelon rose 0.5% on its October 30 report, NextEra Energy fell 0.7% on its October 21 report, and American Electric Power fell 1.6% on its October 28 report. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with NRG Energy’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are EXC (0.12), NEE (0.21), AEP (-0.04); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed NRG Energy’s. Figures this close to 0 show no consistent link.
NRG Earnings Date NRG 1D EXC 1D NEE 1D AEP 1D 8/4/2026 -15.5% -3.1% -0.01% -1.3% 5/6/2026 -4.3% n/a 6.9% 1.8% 2/24/2026 4.3% 7.0% n/a 3.4% 11/6/2025 -1.8% 0.4% -2.9% 6.1% 8/6/2025 -13.6% 1.5% -6.1% 3.7% 5/12/2025 26.2% -0.6% 0.9% n/a 2/26/2025 10.6% 1.3% n/a -1.3% 11/8/2024 -0.3% 0.4% 1.5% -4.1% 8/8/2024 8.2% 2.8% 4.6% 1.1% 5/7/2024 -5.8% 0.1% 1.4% -0.7% 2/28/2024 1.2% 4.3% n/a 4.1% 11/2/2023 2.9% n/a 7.0% n/a 8/8/2023 -2.0% 0.1% -0.1% -2.7% 5/4/2023 -6.2% -0.6% -1.5% n/a 2/16/2023 -4.9% 2.0% -8.7% n/a 11/7/2022 1.9% -2.8% 4.7% -0.3% 8/4/2022 4.7% -3.3% 1.7% -0.1% 5/6/2022 9.8% n/a -6.5% 2.9% Correlation – 0.12 0.21 -0.04
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Source: www.trefis.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
