This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2026): $2.378 billion, a company record and up more than 50% year over year.
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Generation Adjusted EBITDA: $2.28 billion, versus $1.544 billion in Q3 2025.
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Retail Adjusted EBITDA: Approximately $98 million, driven by favorable margins and strong customer volumes.
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Realized Prices: Average realized prices more than 10% higher per megawatt hour year over year.
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Adjusted EBITDA (Year-to-Date): Approximately $5.639 billion, up more than 35% over the prior year period.
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2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Narrowed to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion, with a higher midpoint than the original range.
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2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth Guidance: Narrowed to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion, with a higher midpoint than the original range.
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2027 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Introduced at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
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2027 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth Guidance: Introduced at $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion.
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Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth Per Share: Just under $10.5 in 2025, approximately $14 in 2027, with line of sight to roughly 70% growth from 2027 to 2030.
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Leverage: Net debt to adjusted EBITDA of approximately 2.8x pro forma for the Cogentrix closing and Series A preferred redemption.
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Share Repurchases: Approximately 172 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $39 per share since November 2021; approximately $1 billion completed in 2026 through November 2; approximately $2.5 billion of remaining authorization.
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Dividends: Targeting at least $300 million of annual dividends.
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Cogentrix Acquisition: Approximately 5,500 megawatts acquired for a net purchase price of approximately $4 billion, equating to approximately $729 per kilowatt of capacity; expected high single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029.
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Generation Portfolio: Approximately 50,000 megawatts owned, including approximately 25,000 megawatts of modern combined cycle gas generation.
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Thermal Fleet Availability: Commercial availability approaching 95% in the quarter.
Release Date: November 06, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) delivered record third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.4 billion, a more than 50% increase year-over-year, driven by strong generation performance and higher realized prices.
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The company narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1$7.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth to $4.3$4.7 billion, with midpoints above original ranges, marking the fifth consecutive year of exceeding initial guidance midpoints.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) successfully closed the Cogentrix acquisition, adding approximately 5,500 MW at an attractive valuation of about $729 per kilowatt, and expects high single-digit free cash flow accretion near term, increasing to double-digit accretion beginning in 2029.
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The company has a robust pipeline of growth opportunities, including over 4 GW of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) across nuclear and gas sites, with additional contracting potential from existing assets and new builds.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a target of at least $1 billion in annual share repurchases and $300 million in dividends, and has retired approximately 172 million shares since 2021 at an average cost of about $39 per share.
Negative Points
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ERCOT power prices have been trending lower due to factors such as crypto mining facilities going offline and a data center audit and permitting pause, creating near-term pricing pressure.
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The load interconnection process remains a timing constraint, particularly for gas asset projects, as customers typically require grid connections, delaying potential PPAs.
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Political and regulatory uncertainty, including midterm election results and potential data center moratoriums in Texas, could impact project timelines and customer decisions.
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Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) faces higher supply costs in retail, which are expected to lower profitability in the first and third quarters due to the shape and level of supply cost.
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The company’s 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of $24 assumes no power price recovery and relies on simplifying assumptions, such as allocating excess cash to share repurchases, which may not materialize if growth projects are pursued.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Shar Pourrezza of Wells Fargo asked about the 2030 free cash flow per share outlook of roughly $24, given the disconnect between forward curves and fundamentals in ERCOT. What market assumptions, inorganic assumptions, and buyback assumptions are embedded in that number?A: CEO Jim Burke said the outlook reflects current market forwards and does not assume any big ERCOT recovery, though he expects tightening as load gets connected. CFO Kris Moldovan added that the plan starts with $1 billion a year in share repurchases and $300 million in dividends, includes only announced growth projects (Permian peakers and PJM nuclear uprates,
Source: finance.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.
